2023 Vallarta · Nayarit Real Estate Industry Forecasts

After a successful 2022 in the real estate industry in Puerto Vallarta and Riviera Nayarit, the Vallarta Real Estate Guide editorial team approached five prominent real estate brokers in our destination to get their predictions on how they think the market will perform throughout the new year of 2023.

The featured professionals in this special article are Wayne Franklin, president of Tropicasa Realty; Sarah Elengorn, director of Elengorn Realtors; Warren Brander, partner of Warren Brander Realty Group; Alexis Silva, director of SB Realtors and Pilar Roth, master broker of Vista Natura, who offer very encouraging outlooks for 2023.

U.S. INTEREST RATES

Our five experts placed special emphasis on the behavior of interest rates, which could set the course for 2023:

“While rising interest rates in the U.S. have slowed some purchases that were taking place in the strongest years of the pandemic, we haven’t really seen a systemic failure of the northern housing market. Actually, there are signs that interest rates could be heading down in 2023, further fueling purchase demand. If the United States can overcome this hurdle quickly enough, any significant fall in our market that might occur could be avoided,” explains Wayne Franklin.

Sarah Elengorn adds: “I’ve been significantly encouraged with the strength of the market at the end of the last year. As we are inextricably linked to our immediate neighbors up north, I thought the hikes in interest rates would have affected us more. This hasn’t happened, as yet, and I think we might be able to keep growing due to the sheer number of new visitors and purchasers on the market.”

Warren Brander shares: “Without having a crystal ball, I predict the real estate market will be strong this year—if not, why would I have invested in starting a new office? Yes, high interest rates and inflation north of the border are something to watch for operations to remain stable.”

Alexis Silva mentions: “I believe that one of the best years in the history of real estate in Puerto Vallarta and Riviera Nayarit is coming, as long as there is no lack of control in international politics—thinking about the situation in Europe and if the war escalates further. In addition to this, we need to see if U.S. interest rates begin to fall or at least remain consistent. The same with inflation, which had a significant rise during the last months of 2022.”

Pilar Roth points out: “In 2023, we really expect to have a fairly stable first quarter with the operations we have scheduled. What is true is that we must be very alert with respect to the behavior of indicators in the United States and Canada, especially in October, November and December of this year that has just begun.”

CHANGES IN VALLARTA · NAYARIT’S DEMOGRAPHICS

Over the past three years, both Puerto Vallarta and Riviera Nayarit have experienced a significant shift in buyer demographics: 

“We’re seeing increasingly younger people, digital nomads and also families moving here for an improved change in lifestyle and to lower their cost of living. Our economy also has a high level of investment from national buyers and sellers wanting to retain property in certain areas while also having a place for vacations and the ability to participate in the rental market. I think we still have the capacity to grow and offer new and affordable options for retirees, younger adults who are still working, and families with kids wanting to improve their situation,” explains Sarah Elengorn.

Warren Brander adds: “We’re seeing a shift in demographics that’s going to keep the market strong. Today, there are a lot of young people and families moving here—not just retirees anymore, though that market remains strong. Why this change? I think a lot of this started with the pandemic, as more and more people were working from home, which meant their home could be anywhere in the world. So why not move to Vallarta · Nayarit? Our destination has all the necessary services to live comfortably and a quality of life that is much more affordable than it is north of the border. I see this trend continuing.”

UPWARD CURVE

For our experts, the benefits of Vallarta · Nayarit has positioned the region as a booming destination for real estate investment:

“In terms of vacations and as a tourist destination, Vallarta · Nayarit continues to be an excellent value. We’re seeing a lot of activity. People have learned to work from home, which is increasing the demand for households among people north of the border. The new highway from Guadalajara is nearing completion, which will also increase demand for properties. So, we expect another busy year,” concludes Warren Brander.

“Vallarta · Nayarit continues to be at historic lows in inventory in the market. Despite numerous new construction projects throughout Banderas Bay, demand has been strong enough to provide us with a current condo takeover rate of just five months—and 10 months for homes. Anything selling in under a year could be said to be a seller’s market. And, while we’re certainly not going to sell all the condos by April, it shows how strong the market still is. New developments continue to come to market and that will certainly adjust this year’s numbers, but there is a lot to strongly suggest that 2023 will be a healthy year for the real estate market,” concludes Wayne Franklin.

“I see the upward curve going even higher in 2023, complemented by several key factors: The new highway to Guadalajara which is finally said to be completed by 2024. This is closely related to the opening of the Vidanta theme park, which, in turn, will attract tourism from other parts of the world, such as Europe and Asia. This also justifies the construction of Terminal 2 of the Puerto Vallarta International Airport, which will serve this new clientele. All this merges with the large hotel chains worldwide which chose this region to expand, including One&Only, Auberge, Rosewood, Ritz Carlton and Marriott. These large groups do not invest without doing a deep analysis of the projection and growth of the region. So, I see 2023, 2024 and 2025 as great years for this destination, as long as the world economies stabilize, because even the stock markets got nervous at some point last year. For now, at this time, there is no better investment than a place built on the beach, where significant capital gains are appreciated every year, with returns of 20 to 30 percent during the construction process. It is an investment that not only rises considerably, but can also be enjoyed,” concludes Alexis Silva.