IMF and World Bank Raise GDP Forecast

The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) confirmed that international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as rating agencies, raised their forecasts for Mexico’s economic growth for 2017 despite global economic uncertainty and volatility and internal factors such as recent earthquakes and NAFTA negotiations.

According to the SHCP, the increase in growth expectations is due to the dynamism and resistance of the Mexican economy. Highlighting the reforms instituted by the Mexican government, including energy and favorable fiscal consolidation, the World Bank estimates that the Mexican economy will grow at 2.2 percent, as opposed to the 1.8 percent it estimated in June this year.

And the IMF highlights the resilience of the Mexican economy despite the uncertainty generated by the renegotiation of NAFTA and restrictive monetary policy, increasing their June growth forecast by 0.2 percent, to 2.1 percent. According to the SHCP, the IMF sees the possibility of reaching 2.7 percent, provided that the planned structural reforms are fully implemented.

Finally, the SHCP notes that rating agency Fitch raised their economic growth estimate for Mexico to 2.3 percent for the remainder of this year and 2.4 percent for 2018, as the country’s economic activity has been resilient, private consumption and consumer confidence have grown and the unemployment rate has been kept down.

“Despite the uncertainty generated by the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the more restrictive monetary policy in the last two years, the momentum for growth has been maintained in Mexico.” —IMF.